New Year Blues

It is seriously cold here in Budapest - and possibly about to get a whole lot colder. This is not a weather forecast. Natural gas is the fuel of choice for large numbers of people for heating. It is clean, relatively environmentally friendly and it works. Works, that is, until a bunch of idiots somewhere a long way east of here decide to play politics with it. It is interesting to see the elaborate exchanges of rhetoric between Kiev and Moscow about who is to blame but they are playing a very dangerous game indeed. Their problem is that the gas has been bought and paid for. It is fair to say that we do not particularly care who is to blame. We want it fixed and we want it fixed now. Medium term, Europe will undoubtedly seek alternative sources (Turkey has already done a deal with Iran). Long term, we will move to more credible and environmentally friendly solutions. Russia will lose business either way and if it transpires that Ukraine has been ripping off the western supply, they can wave goodbye to any credibility as a candidate for EU membership. Time, I think, for them to sort it out.

In the meantime, we observe what the good judges meant at Nuremberg when they said 'never again'. They meant never again - unless it is in the defence of Israel. The argument is that something has to be done to stop Hamas from lobbing rockets into Israel. Amen to that. What the argument does not say is that it is OK to indiscriminately target civilians in this or any other conflict. The Israelis will, of course, deny that they are doing this but the bottom line is that 40 civilians in a UN school compound do not die unnecessarily unless someone takes the decision that civilians do not matter when wider political issues are at stake. Nothing may have been learned at Nuremberg but a great deal was learned from the Nazi persecution of civilians. They learned how to do it.

Talking of the democratic process, I note that Britain's descent into mediocrity and confusion continues apace. Mr. Brown and his fellow deluded control freaks continue to believe - in the face of all evidence to the contrary - that creating a siege mentality by encouraging a climate of fear will somehow save the Union. Ironic that the one thing New Labour might just be able to claim credit for (although all the donkey work was done by the previous government) is the Northern Ireland peace agreement. Now they risk undermining the whole thing with ridiculous internal border controls. The one remaining hope for the Union is federation. I suspect the SNP is about to lead the way towards an end to the union and once that process has started, it will become unstoppable. All strength to their arm, say I. In the meantime, a cloud of uncertainty continues to hover over it's component parts - all that is except Northern Ireland where 'the future is bright, the future is orange'.

This rambling post might suggest that there is nothing much to be cheerful about for the New Year but I have hopes. A decent turnout for the EU parliamentary elections, a major breakthrough for the SNP and a new dawning in Washington might - just might - turn it all around but I am not optimistic. A general election in the UK would raise a smile though. Time to go Gordon.

Special thanks to PTTP for his greeting, warmly reciprocated